{"id":469956,"date":"2020-03-16T20:17:33","date_gmt":"2020-03-16T11:17:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iwj.co.jp\/wj\/open\/?p=469956"},"modified":"2020-04-05T15:46:24","modified_gmt":"2020-04-05T06:46:24","slug":"iwj%e8%aa%bf%e6%9f%bb%e3%83%ac%e3%83%9d%e3%83%bc%e3%83%88%ef%bc%81-%e3%80%8e%e3%83%91%e3%83%b3%e3%83%87%e3%83%9f%e3%83%83%e3%82%af%e5%a0%b1%e5%91%8a%e6%9b%b8%e3%80%8f%e3%81%ae%e3%83%97%e3%83%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iwj.co.jp\/wj\/fellow\/archives\/469956","title":{"rendered":"IWJ\u8abf\u67fb\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u7d9a\u7de8\uff01\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u300f\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u30fb\u30c7\u30a3\u30ec\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u3001\u30a2\u30e1\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30fb\u30a2\u30c0\u30eb\u30b8\u30e3\u535a\u58eb\u306bIWJ\u306f\u76f4\u63a5\u30e1\u30fc\u30eb\u53d6\u6750\uff01\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u306fSARS\u3088\u308a\u3082\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u304c\u5f37\u304f\u5c01\u3058\u8fbc\u3081\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000IWJ\u3067\u306f\u30012020\u5e743\u67081\uff13\u65e5\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u30ba\u30fb\u30db\u30d7\u30ad\u30f3\u30b9\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u8846\u885b\u751f\u5927\u5b66\u9662\u30fb\u5065\u5eb7\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u306e\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306e\u8af8\u7279\u5fb4\u300f\u3068\u984c\u3059\u308b\u5831\u544a\u66f8\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u300f\uff09\u3092\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u306b\u63b2\u8f09\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f250\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u3078\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u3068\u5e83\u7bc4\u56f2\u306a\u6587\u732e\u8abf\u67fb\u3092\u3082\u3068\u306b\u4f5c\u6210\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u30012018\u5e745\u670810\u65e5\u306b\u767a\u8868\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001WHO\u304c\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u62e1\u5927\u3092\u300c\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u300d\u3060\u3068\u767a\u8868\u3057\u305f3\u670812\u65e5\u306e\u304a\u3088\u305d2\u5e74\u3082\u524d\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_469958\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter aligncenter\" style=\"width: 410px; max-width: 100%;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/iwj.co.jp\/wj\/open\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200315_469956_ec.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"636\" class=\"size-full wp-image-469958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/iwj.co.jp\/wj\/open\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200315_469956_ec.png 400w, https:\/\/iwj.co.jp\/wj\/open\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200315_469956_ec-189x300.png 189w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u25b2Global Catastrophic Biological Risk\uff08\u5730\u7403\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u7834\u6ec5\u7684\u306a\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u7684\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3001amazon.co.jp\u3088\u308a\uff09<\/p><\/div>\n<ul class=\"articles\">\n<li><a href=https:\/\/iwj.co.jp\/wj\/fellow\/archives\/469833>IWJ\u8abf\u67fb\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\uff01\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u306f\u300c\u5730\u7403\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u7834\u6ec5\u7684\u306a\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u7684\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\uff08GCBR\uff1dGlobal Catastrophic Biological Risk\uff09\u300d!? \u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u30ba\u30fb\u30db\u30d7\u30ad\u30f3\u30b9\u5927\u5b66\u306e\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u300f\u304c\u30012\u5e74\u524d\u306b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u306e\u51fa\u73fe\u3092\u4e88\u898b\u3057\u3001\u8b66\u544a\uff01 2020.3.13<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3000IWJ\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u30fb\u30c7\u30a3\u30ec\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u3092\u52d9\u3081\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u30e1\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2\u306b\u983b\u7e41\u306b\u767b\u5834\u3057\u3066\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3084\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30a2\u30e1\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30fb\u30a2\u30c0\u30eb\u30b8\u30e3\u535a\u58eb\u306b\u3001\u30e1\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u76f4\u63a5\u53d6\u6750\u3057\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b4\u70b9\u306e\u8cea\u554f\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u56de\u7b54\u3092\u9802\u3044\u305f\u3002\u535a\u58eb\u306b\u611f\u8b1d\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u3092IWJ\u306e\u8aad\u8005\u306b\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u30a2\u30e1\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30fb\u30a2\u30c0\u30eb\u30b8\u30e3\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306f\u3001IWJ\u306e4\u3064\u306e\u8cea\u554f\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u4e00\u3064\u305a\u3064\u56de\u7b54\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u4e00\u62ec\u3057\u3066\u56de\u7b54\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u305f\u3081\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306e\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u8a33\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u8868\u8a18\u306e\u4ed5\u65b9\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3001IWJ\u306e\u8cea\u554f\u306b\u8a72\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u5168\u4f53\u304b\u3089\u30d4\u30c3\u30af\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u3057\u3066\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3055\u305b\u3066\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u6700\u5f8c\u306b\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306e\u30aa\u30ea\u30b8\u30ca\u30eb\u5168\u4f53\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u7ffb\u8a33\u3057\u3066\u63b2\u8f09\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08IWJ\u306e\u8cea\u554f\/\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u8a33\uff09<br \/>\n\u3000\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306e\u8af8\u7279\u5fb4\u300f\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3042\u306a\u305f\u304c\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u3057\u305fGCBL\uff08Global Catastrophic Biological Risk\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u306a\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u7834\u6ec5\u7684\u306a\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u7684\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\uff09\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306e\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306e\u7279\u5fb47\u3064\u306b\u307b\u307c\u8a72\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u9a5a\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b4\u70b9\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u304a\u3046\u304b\u304c\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8cea\u554f\uff11. 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a journalist in Japan.  I&#8217;ve read your report,&#8221; The Characteristic of Pandemic Pathogens&#8221; published in 2018. And I am so surprised that COVID-19 has almost all 7 traits you explicated as the characteristics of a GCBR-level pandemic pathogen in the report.<\/p>\n<p>1. Can we already see COVID-19 as a GCBR-level pandemic pathogen?<\/p>\n<p>2. And considering the speed of spread, I think COVID-19&#8217;s R0 is much higher than SARS. I presume this is because COVID-19 is engendering a lot of so-called stealthy killers.What do you think of stealthy killers produced by COVID-19? the number of them, their R0 and their influence to the vulnerables of COVIS-19.<\/p>\n<p>3. The director general of WHO declared COVID-19 pandemic yesterday. But at the same time he says they are controllable. I think his comments are optimistic. Do you think the pandemic is controllable?<\/p>\n<p>4. Under the situation of pandemic the Tokyo Olympics will be difficult to be held. What do you think of the likelihood that the Tokyo Olympic games will be halted?<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u30a2\u30e1\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30fb\u30a2\u30c0\u30eb\u30b8\u30e3\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u7b54\/\u539f\u6587\uff09<\/p>\n<p>Hard to completely categorize the novel coronavirus as a global catastrophic biological risk level pathogen because we still have some uncertainty around the case fatality ratio. However, this is illustrative of what even a pathogen with a case fatality ratio of less than 1% can do. This virus is clearly much more transmissible than SARS It is not containable. Hence, we are in a pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Decisions regarding the Olympics are going to be complicated and will likely depend upon the context of this virus is spread and its severity as we approach the deadline to make the decision.<br \/>\n(\u4ee5\u4e0a)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000IWJ\u3067\u306f\u30012020\u5e743\u67081\uff13\u65e5\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u30ba\u30fb\u30db\u30d7\u30ad\u30f3\u30b9\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u8846\u885b\u751f\u5927\u5b66\u9662\u30fb\u5065\u5eb7\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u306e\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306e\u8af8\u7279\u5fb4\u300f\u3068\u984c\u3059\u308b\u5831\u544a\u66f8\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u300e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u300f\uff09\u3092\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u306b\u63b2\u8f09\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f250\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5c02\u9580 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